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Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32257/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The CME is faint, but may be visible to the north in STEREO A COR2. The potential source may be the M3.4 flare from AR 3762 starting at 2024-07-27T18:24Z with associated dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284 around S10W30. This CME was likely swept up by multiple following Earth-directed CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32259/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-27T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=21.0, Speed=397.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-28T03:49Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-31T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-30T08:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-31T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240728_034900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 90.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-07-28T01:52Z

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